Paging Emmanuel Goldstein

  

  While reading, watching and listening to the interminable analyses surrounding this week's elections in Virginia, New Jersey, Maine, New York and California, I found myself remembering George Orwell's 1984. How so and why? Well, hearing Republican pundits proclaim that a Democratic victory in New York's 23rd Congressional District was actually a victory for the GOP, while Democrats were arguing that losing governorships in both New Jersey and Virginia had nothing whatsoever to do with the popularity of President Barack Obama or the future of the party, I couldn't help but remember all those "perpetual war" slogans from Owell's dystopian novel:

   WAR IS PEACE! 

   FREEDOM IS SLAVERY! 

   IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH!"

  

For those who recall 1984, these slogans are part of a "newspeak" dictionary entitled The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism, authored by one "Emmanuel Goldstein," who in fact does not exist.  When coming from the pen of the fictional Goldstein, such shibboleths as "War is Peace!"  and "Freedom is Slavery!" are to be understood as the height of distopian lunacy. When  "Defeat is Victory!" comes from the mouth or quill of the not-so-fictional Jonah Goldberg, William Rivers Pitt, Michael Steele or even David Plouffe it is understood to be "political spin" which, although not necessarily a synonym for "lunacy," is nonetheless fairly maddening.  

 

   So what conclusions can be drawn from this week's various elections?

  

   Let's begin with the New Jersey and Virginia governors' races, where Republicans took back the state house.  As much as Republicans claim that their victories represented "clear defeats" for President Obama, it is good to remember that his name did not appear on either state ballot. 

 

 New Jersey voters had a choice between Governor John Corzine -- an exceptionally unpopular incumbent who ran an unbelievably bone-headed campaign -- and challenger Christopher Christie, a former United States Attorney.   Predictably, Christie won 91% of Republican votes while Corzine won 86% of Democrats.  And among those who said they were "very worried about the shape of the economy" Christie pulled in 61% of the vote as opposed to Corzine's 34%. Although he outspent Christie by a better than two-to-one margin and had the benefit of three campaign appearances by President Obama, Corzine just had too much crummy baggage. Additionally, independent candidate Chris Dagget -- who at times polled in significant double digits -- received a little under 6% of the vote.  Intriguingly, 46% of his votes came from independents, 37% from Democrats, and a mere 17% from Republicans.  Results from various exit polls made it a toss-up as to whether Christie won or Corzine lost.

 

   In Virginia, Republican Robert F. McDonnell, a polished fiscal/social conservative easily defeated Democrat R. Creigh Deeds, who by comparison came off as an ill-informed, ill-at-ease amateur.  McDonnell won 92% of Republicans, Deeds 93% of Democrats. McDonnell also had history of his side: the state has been a "tough get" for any Democrat for several generations.  Obama's success there in 2008 was the exception, not the rule for Democrats historically. It is fascinating to note that whichever party wins the White House has gone on to lose the Virginia governor's office one year later every time since the Carter administration.

 

   Anyone concluding that these two Republican victories offer "overwhelming proof" that the GOP is back on track, is reading a script penned by Emmanuel Goldstein. For despite these two victories, the country's opinion of Republicans  remains "monumentally bleak."  Two weeks ago, a Washington Post/ABC News poll reported the following:

    

   Less than one in five voters (19%) expressed confidence in Republicans' ability to make the right decisions for America's future, while a whopping 79% lacked that confidence. 
  

   Among independent voters, who went heavily for Obama in 2008 and congressional Democrats in 2006, the numbers for Republicans on the confidence questions were even  worse. Just 17 percent of independents expressed confidence in Republicans' ability to make the right decision, while 83 percent said they did not have that confidence.

  

   On the generic ballot question, 51 percent of the sample said they would cast a vote for a Democratic candidate in their congressional district next fall while just 39 percent said they would opt for a GOP candidate.

   And, perhaps most troubling for GOP hopes is the fact that just 20 percent of the Post sample identified themselves as Republicans, the lowest that number has been in Post polling since 1983. (No, that is not a typo.)   

   Then there were the Congressional elections.  In California's 10th District, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi -- a down-the-line liberal, easily defeated conservative Republican David Harmer.  In winning, Garamendi now takes over the seat vacated by 5-term representative Ellen Tauscher -- a moderate, pro-business Democrat -- who resigned her seat in order to become Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security.

 

    Lastly, there is Democrat Bill Owens' election to Congress from New York's 23rd District.  This will likely turn out to be the most telling -- and significant -- race of all.  Up until spring 2009,  a Republican has represented the 23rd for the past 18 years.  That man, moderate John McHugh was named Secretary of the Army by President Obama last spring.  Moreover, the 23rd, which covers most of New York's "North Country" -- starting at Lake Champlain, running westward along the St. Lawrence Seaway and over the Adirondacks Forest Preserve to Lake Ontario -- has been represented by nothing but Republicans since the days of President Andrew Johnson.  In fact, in one part of the district, the last non-Republican to represent the citizens in Congress was a Whig!

 

   Originally, the race appeared to be between moderate Republican Deirdre "Dede" Scozzafava -- a ten-year veteran of the New York State Assembly -- and moderate Democrat Bill Owens -- a Plattsburgh attorney who until he decided to run in the special election, was a registered independent.  Rounding out the race was Lake Placid CPA Doug Hoffman, running as a third-party candidate on the Conservative Party ticket.  Scozzafava, who is pro-choice and pro-same-sex marriage, opposes gun control and has strong ties to labor, received the endorsements of former Speaker Newt Gingrich, New York Congressman Peter King, the NRA, and the New York State United Teachers.  Liberal Democrat blogger Markos Moulitsas of the Daily Kos wrote an October 1, 2009 column in which he said he was "rooting for her." 

 

   Scozzafava -- who by all rights should have won the special election -- conflicted with her party's high priests and priestesses by not being as far-right as Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann.  Conservative luminaries such as Limbaugh, Beck, Bachmann, Pawlenty and Palin, denounced her for being "a dangerous socialist," derided her for being "to the left of Nancy Pelosi," and threw their support behind Doug Hoffman.  The resulting bedlam caused Scozzafava to leave the race and, with around-the-clock prompting from such Democratic heavyweights as Senator Chuck Schumer, Representative Steve Israel, NY Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Scozzafava actually endorsed Democrat Owens.  National conservatives poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into Hoffman's campaign, but he proved to be both inadequately prepared and dreadfully uninformed about local issues.  Running a lackluster campaign promising "lower taxes, less government and more freedom," Hoffman looked, acted and sounded lost.  In the end, Bill Owens -- who also received a lot of financial backing from around the country -- wound up defeating Doug Hoffman by more than 5,000 votes, 49.2%-45.2%.

 

   Unbelievably, the GOP's unreconstructed right-wing is labeling this a victory.  How so?  How in the world can Doug Hoffman's defeat be considered a victory?  And by whom?  It would appear that what these true believers are celebrating is the fact that they chased Dede Scozzafava -- that "far-left socialist" -- from the race.  What they are thereby implying is that there is only room for one platform in the GOP: that which is most conservative, most closed-minded and most in lockstep with the positions and values of the Harding-Coolidge-Hoover years.

 

   If this is the case, and if they truly consider having kept Dede Scozzafava -- an electable moderate -- out of the race to be a "victory," then they had better prepare themselves for a lot more "victories" in 2010 and 2012.

   

   "Paging Emmanuel Goldstein . . ."

 

    

©2009 Kurt F. Stone

  

  

 

 

Comments

[S.M.]

I agree on all points in your blog. But, it would have been better if the Dems had won in New Jersey and Virginia!

[Alan Weiss]

Got to love Orwell